Showing posts with label systems thinking. Show all posts
Showing posts with label systems thinking. Show all posts

5/25/2012

Military Operations Research: Quantitative Decision Making (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) Review

Military Operations Research: Quantitative Decision Making (International Series in Operations Research and Management Science)
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Jaiswal provides the most recent land power-focused military operations research volume. He provides a basic survey of the field, beginning with a very brief discussion of the origins of OR in the military. His topics include search and detection, military simulation, cost effectiveness analysis, optimization, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Lanchester equations, and a quantified approach to intelligence analysis. The reader should be aware that his coverage of various specific military simulation models is a bit dated, as one should expect in a book, and limited in scope. Beyond that topic, his treatment is broad and therefore less sensitive to the passage of time. The book is a survey, so depth of treatment is not present. But it fills the intended role of pulling together disparate topics of land-based military OR. It also provides some perspective on non NATO defense issues. It must be challenging to decide what to exclude, but surprisingly there is no coverage of network flows, queuing theory, decision analysis, or game theory which have clear military applications. The focus is also on operations rather than the logistics of military analysis.

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The field of Operations Research (OR) grew out of World War IIoperations to improve the effectiveness of newly introduced weaponsand equipment, and to solve logistical problems for the war effort.Since its beginnings, OR has rapidly become a robust set ofdecision-making methodologies widely used in business, engineering,and governmental sectors. Nevertheless, many of OR's military anddefense contributions have remained confined to classified reports.This book is a systematic, state-of-the-art treatment of militaryoperations research (MOR). It has been written for those interested inlearning about the applications of OR techniques to military problems,and within these discussions theoretical concepts needed for analysisof military issues are presented. The book examines issues that relateto both tactical and strategic levels. Several examples have beensolved in each chapter to illustrate the application of the techniquesof MOR to military systems. The data used in these examples arehypothetical. They do not correspond to any existing weapon ormilitary situations. They are used strictly to illustrate anapplication of MOR in defense decision-making.

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11/15/2011

Modeling Dynamic Climate Systems (With CD-ROM) Review

Modeling Dynamic Climate Systems (With CD-ROM)
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This book aims to teach about climate modeling while presenting some fundamentals of atmospheric physics by providing numerous STELLA models ranging from a simple stability model of a leaky bucket to much more complex (and relevant) models for Rossby waves and El Nino. Though the models are not "rigorous", they are intended to show how simplifications can enhance understanding and how some simplifications meet the goals of the model while other times simplifications miss important aspects for accurate models.
For those who are looking for sophisticated programing and modeling approaches, they are sure to be disappointed. However, for those who are either trying to learn or teach basics of climate modeling to those with limited mathematical expertise or teaching students with such limited experience, this book will prove quite useful. The approximately 40 STELLA models included with the book guide the reader to an intuitive understanding of an Earth system approach of atmospheric science. I plan to use a number of examples with a group of students who have only a simple calculus background. Though the text has a 2001 copywrite and the CD-ROM was intended for an earlier version of STELLA, I found that the models could be translated to the newest versions of STELLA on a Macintosh through a fairly simple manipulations and help from software updates provided by High Performance Systems. The text would be useful for junior level classes in atmospheric science aimed at students in environmental science programs. It would be less useful for those with strong math skills majoring in a rigorous atmospheric science sequence, though it could provide such students with a much better conceptual understanding than they might receive in a more mathematically sophisticated class.

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In the process of building and using models to comprehend the dynamics of the atmosphere, ocean and climate, the reader will learn how the different components of climate systems function, interact with each other, and vary over time. Topics include the stability of climate, Earths energy balance, parcel dynamics in the atmosphere, the mechanisms of heat transport in the climate system, and mechanisms of climate variability. Special attention is given to the effects of climate change. The book is accompanied by a cross-platform CD-ROM containing models and a run-time version of STELLA modeling software.

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11/05/2011

Modeling for Learning Organizations (System Dynamics Series) Review

Modeling for Learning Organizations (System Dynamics Series)
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"Modeling for Learning Organizations" builds off of the extensive experience of top professors and consultants using the SD tools to test strategies and build an understanding of firm and industry dynamics.
"Modeling" also includes a section overviewing the various simulation software packages available to modelers. Though developers like High-Performance Systems, Vensim, Pugh-Roberts, and PowerSim have made product enhancements to date, the sections from each company provide a great introduction to what is out there how each package can be applied.
The most valuable aspect of the book is probably in the case studies and methodological explorations of several authors. A number of key insights are offered as authors reflect upon the successes and shortcoming of the methods each chose to use to explore and develop models in a variety of business and public environments.
This is definitely a must have for any SD library.

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Conventional wisdom says that we can learn from our errors, but errors in the business world can be prohibitively costly. To truly understand how complex business organizations function requires different tools than most managers have been given. Yet managers need methods to understand how their organization works in order to test policies, discover flaws in thinking, and find the hidden leveragepoints within the complex systems they manage. Through a system simulation, the dynamics of the whole system, not just the individual parts, becomes apparent. The outcome of current and future situations becomes possible to predict and with this information, managers can focus on the changes that need to be made.The distinguished contributors to Modeling for Learning Organizations include Jay W. Forrester, Peter Senge, and Arie De Geus. You will learn about leading applications such as:
Shell's work on modeling the oil producers.
The Management Flight Simulator, a computer-based case learning environment pioneered by John Sterman and others at MIT
The landmark Claims Learning Laboratory at Hanover Insurancecompanies.
For managers, professionals, academicians, and everyone who recognizes the profound implications of modeling, this book is an excellent resource. It offers a broad understanding of the modeling process, discusses a multitude of case studies, and provides a review of the most recent simulation software.

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10/21/2011

Systems Science and Modeling for Ecological Economics Review

Systems Science and Modeling for Ecological Economics
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If you did not do modeling before and have no idea where to start from - this book is for you. It is well written and it is fun!
I had to do some modeling for a project that I have been working on. At that moment I did not have much experience in modeling, especially in modeling coupled economic and natural systems. I was looking for a good guide in ecological economic modeling but could not find anything user-friendly and interdisciplinary. I came across the web-course by Dr. Voinov and started it. The book is a great addition to the course. The web-course as well as this textbook lead you through the essential steps of model design and implementation, introduce you to main challenges and ways to resolve them, and give you some great illustrations from practical applications of ecological economics. I especially like that it provides not only the theory of modeling for ecological economics but also discusses software tools and gives you hands on experience with the exercises. I was very excited to see that the textbook is out there now. Enjoy!


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Modeling is a key component to sciences from mathematics to life science, including environmental and ecological studies. By looking at the underlying concepts of the software, we can make sure that we build mathematically feasible models and that we get the most out of the data and information that we have. This book shows how models can be analyzed using simple math and software to generate meaningful qualitative descriptions of system dynamics. This book shows that even without a full analytical, mathematically rigorous analysis of the equations, there may be ways to derive some qualitative understanding of general behavior of a system. By relating some of the modeling approaches and systems theory to real world examples the book illustrates how these approaches can help understand concepts such as sustainability, peak oil, adaptive management, optimal harvest and other practical applications. * Relates modeling approaches and systems theory to real world examples * Teaches students to build mathematically feasible models and get the most of our the data and information available* Wide range of applications in hydrology, population dynamics, market cycles, sustainability theory, management, and more

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10/13/2011

Dynamic Modeling for Business Management: An Introduction (Modeling Dynamic Systems) Review

Dynamic Modeling for Business Management: An Introduction (Modeling Dynamic Systems)
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I read this after Sterman's 'Business Dynamics'. While 'Business Dynamics' is a graduate level text book, this book is more aligned to the requirements of practitioners like consultants and managers. MDS have a series of books on use of dynamic modeling, each focusing on a specific area like biological systems, economics, health sciences, environmental systems etc.

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Modelling is a tool used by savvy business managers to understand the processes of their business and to estimate the impact of changes. Dynamic Modelling for Business Management applies dynamic modelling to business management, using accessible modelling techniques that are demonstrated starting with fundamental processes and advancing to more complex business models. Discussions of modelling emphasize its practical use for decision making and implementing change for measurable results. Readers will learn about both manufacturing and service-oriented business processes using hands-on lessons. Then will then be able to manipulate additional models to try out their knowledge and address issues specific to their own businesses and interests. All of the models used in the book and a run-time version of the ithink software are included on a CD-ROM included with the book. Some of the topics covered include workflow management, supply-chain-management, and strategy.

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9/01/2011

Modeling the Environment, Second Edition Review

Modeling the Environment, Second Edition
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A highly readable introduction to environmental modeling. What distinguishes the book from other environmental science and environmental modeling works is its interdisciplinary treatment. In particular, the models integrate the physical world and the world of human behavior. Far too many environmental models fail to close the feedbacks between human behavior and the state of the environment, instead taking waste inputs or resource use as exogenous. This book helps students learn to model human behavior (social and economic) as an integral part of the ecological system. The models and software mean the book encourages active learning, and enable students to explore important issues on their own if they choose.

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Modeling the Environment was the first textbook in an emerging field-the modeling techniques that allow managers and researchers to see in advance the consequences of actions and policies in environmental management. This new edition brings the book thoroughly up to date and reaffirms its status as the leading introductory text on the subject. System dynamics is one of the most widely known and widely used methods of modeling. The fundamental principles of this approach are demonstrated here with a wide range of examples, including geo-hydrology, population biology, epidemiology and economics. The applications demonstrate the transferability of the systems approach across disciplines, across spatial scales, and across time scales. All of the models are implemented with stock and flow software programs such as Stella and Vensim. These programs are easy and fun to learn, and they allow students to develop realistic models within the first few weeks of a college course. System dynamics has emerged as the most common approach in collaborative projects to address environmental problems. The stock and flow structures and the emphasis on feedback control provide a common language that is understood by scientists from many disciplines. Although the interdisciplinary approach described here is widely used in practice, there are few books to aid instruction. Modeling the Environment meets the urgent need for instructional materials in interdisciplinary modeling of environmental systems.


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8/17/2011

Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World with CD-ROM Review

Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for  a Complex World with CD-ROM
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The field of system dynamics was created in 1956 under the leadership of MIT Professor Jay W. Forrester to evaluate how alternative policies affect growth, stability, fluctuation, and changing behavior in corporations, cities, and countries. Forrester founded the System Dynamics Program in the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management at MIT. John Sterman is currently Director of the System Dynamics Group at MIT.
This text is a summary of the wisdom and knowledge gathered over more than twenty years of research dedicated to the study of practical methods for systems thinking and the dynamic modeling of complex systems. It is well written, easy to understand, and worthy of serious consideration.
I believe the text is destined to become a classic. It is written in a straightforward style and does not require prerequisite knowledge of higher mathematics. Indeed, in the author's words, "one of the strengths of the text is the way it presents system dynamics with a minimum of mathematical formalism. The goal is to develop the reader's intuition and conceptual understanding, without sacrificing the rigor of the scientific method." This goal is achieved well.
The text opens with a succinct and well organized description of approaches to the study of complex systems. It develops a set of principles for successful use of systems dynamics and provides well-written overviews of the Modeling Process and dynamic systems.
It covers the construction of causal loop diagrams and describes their application in a variety of business and engineering examples.
This is one of the best texts in its field for upper division undergraduate courses and graduate programs. It will be useful to many in business, engineering, and science.

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The leading authority on system dynamics explains this approach to organizational problem solving, emphasizing simulation models to understand issues such as fluctuating sales, market growth and stagnation, the reliability of forecasts and the rationality of business decision-making. The CD includes modeling software from Vensim, ithink, and PowerSim.

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