3/05/2012

A Guide to Appraisal Valuation Modeling Review

A Guide to Appraisal Valuation Modeling
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Given its monetary importance, it is not at all surprising that real estate valuation would be one of the first activities to be automated. Even though the concepts needed were in place long before the first AVM tools make their way on the market, the technology and data was not available. The Internet explosion changed all that, and now the enormity of the available real estate information actually dictates that automated valuation be performed. The use of AVMs has made appraisals dramatically less expensive, and most importantly, has lowered the incidence of fraud by removing the human element and the consequent temptation to inflate housing prices. And even more importantly, the declining real estate market at the present time and the accompanying aversion towards risk by lending institutions has resulted in the development and use of many different types of AVM tools, and vendors of these tools are working diligently to improve and market them.
Appraisal valuation modeling, the subject of this very short book, can be considered to be a branch of the field of spatial econometrics. The content of the book however is quite elementary, and no sophisticated mathematics is used. Many AVM tools make heavy use of concepts from artificial intelligence and mathematical statistics, but the authors have chosen to write a book that will be helpful to the mortgage underwriter/risk manager, and so the book is not directed towards developers or modelers. The book addresses several questions important to these types of readers: 1. How can appraisers decide which type of analysis to use and how can one AVM tool be distinguished from another? 2. What is the difference between `mass' and `single-property' appraisals? 3. What is the difference between `cost', `sales comparison', and `income capitalization' approaches to valuation? 4. What are the advantages and disadvantages in using `adjustable' versus `fixed' AVM tools? 5. Is an AVM tool that is dependent on dozens of different variables always better than one that is based only on a few? 6. When can a valuation model be considered to be "good"? 7. How do you incorporate "subjective" property characteristics in a valuation model?


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A Guide to Appraisal Valuation Modeling will introduce skeptics to the mathematical modeling of market behavior. The handbook covers fundamental statistics and the basics of regression analysis and model construction. Many of these topics are brought together in a case study on the valuation of lots in an actual residential subdivision.

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