10/20/2011

Empirical Modeling in Economics: Specification and Evaluation Review

Empirical Modeling in Economics: Specification and Evaluation
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This is probably the first and the last econometrics book I will have read just for fun! Although the title of the book sounds daunting, I found it very easy to read. If you are interested in intutions behind building econometric models, you should consider reading this book. A word of caution: if you want to find something that treats this subject rigorously, this may not be the book you want to buy. Just to have fun with econometrics is the general idea here.

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In these three essays, Professor Granger explains the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model. Drawing on a wide range of cases and vignettes from economics, finance, politics and environment economics, as well as from art, literature, and the entertainment industry, Professor Granger combines rigor with intuition to provide a unique and entertaining insight into one of the most important subjects in modern economics. Chapter 1 deals with Specification. Chapter 2 considers Evaluation, and argues that insufficent evaluation is undertaken by economists, and that models should be evaluated in terms of the quality of their output. In Chapter 3, the question of how to evaluate forecasts is considered at several levels of increasing depth.

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