Showing posts with label monte carlo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label monte carlo. Show all posts

4/07/2012

Explorations in Monte Carlo Methods (Undergraduate Texts in Mathematics) Review

Explorations in Monte Carlo Methods (Undergraduate Texts in Mathematics)
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Pretty clear, with some concise explanations of a variety of topics. The reader should have taken introductory courses in statistics and discrete mathematics. With that background, the math is not too difficult here; rarely does the reader wonder how the author got from one step to the next.

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Monte Carlo methods are among the most used and useful computational tools available today, providing efficient and practical algorithims to solve a wide range of scientific and engineering problems. Applications covered in this book include optimization, finance, statistical mechanics, birth and death processes, and gambling systems.Explorations in Monte Carlo Methods provides a hands-on approach to learning this subject. Each new idea is carefully motivated by a realistic problem, thus leading from questions to theory via examples and numerical simulations. Programming exercises are integrated throughout the text as the primary vehicle for learning the material. Each chapter ends with a large collection of problems illustrating and directing the material. This book is suitable as a textbook for students of engineering and the sciences, as well as mathematics.

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11/22/2011

Missing Data in Longitudinal Studies: Strategies for Bayesian Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis (Chapman & Hall/CRC Monographs on Statistics & Applied Probability) Review

Missing Data in Longitudinal Studies: Strategies for Bayesian Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis (Chapman and Hall/CRC Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability)
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Issues of missing data in longitudinal studies are very important in the design and analysis of clinical trials. This is such an important statistical topic, that many excellent books have been written about it. One of the earliest and a landmark text was the book by Rubin and Little which was recently updated in the second edition. Mixed linear models for longitudinal data provide an effective method for dealing with several types of missingness as does multiple imputation. Pattern mixture models are also very useful. Molenberghs and Kennard, Verbeke and Molenberghs and Rubin all cover these topic well in their excellent texts.
What then is the advantage of this text by Daniels and Hogan?
1. It is slightly more current than the others
2. It combines theory and application very nicely
3. A series of seven real data sets from real clinical trials and epidemiologic studies are presented up front in Chapter 1 and used throughout to illustrate practical advantages and disadvantages of the various techniques covered in the latter chapters
4. It covers Bayesian modeling and sensitivity analysis in more depth that most of its competitors
Only Molenberghs and Kennard match it in the depth of coverage on theory and applications. But they do not provide the coverage of Bayesian methods the way Daniels and Hogan do.
For these reasons I recommend this book to the practicing biostatisticians working on clinical trials even if the texts listed below are alresdy on their bookshelves.
I) Diggle, P. J., Heagerty, P., Liang, K.-Y. and Zeger, S. L. (2002). "Analysis of Longitudinal Data" 2nd Edition. Oxfrod University Press, Oxford.
II) Fitzmaurice, G. M., Laird, N.M. and Ware, J. H. (2004). "Applied ongitudinal Analysis". John Wiley & Sons, New York.
III) Little, R. J. A. and Rubin, D. B. (2002) "Statistical Analysis with Missing Data" 2nd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, New York
IV) Molenberghs, G and Kennard, M. G. (2007). "Missing Data in Clinical Studies" John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
V) Molenberghs, G. and Verbeke, G. (2005). "Models for Discrete Longitudinal Data". Springer-Verlag, New York.
VI) Pinheiro, J. C. and Bates, D. M. (2000). "Mixed Effects Models in S and S-Plus". Springer-Verlag, New York.
VII) Rubin, D. B. (1987). "Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys" John Wiley & Sons, New York.
VIII) Tsiatis, A. A. (2006). "Semiparametric Theory and Missing Data" Dpringer-Verlag, New York.
IX) Verbeke, G and Molenberghs, G. (1997). "Linear Mixed Models in Practice: A SAS-Oriented Approach" Springer-Verlag, New York.
X) Verbeke, G and Molenberghs, G. (2000). "Linear Mixed Models for Longitudinal Data" Springer-Verlag, New York.


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Drawing from the authors' own work and from the most recent developments in the field, Missing Data in Longitudinal Studies: Strategies for Bayesian Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis describes a comprehensive Bayesian approach for drawing inference from incomplete data in longitudinal studies. To illustrate these methods, the authors employ several data sets throughout that cover a range of study designs, variable types, and missing data issues.
The book first reviews modern approaches to formulate and interpret regression models for longitudinal data. It then discusses key ideas in Bayesian inference, including specifying prior distributions, computing posterior distribution, and assessing model fit. The book carefully describes the assumptions needed to make inferences about a full-data distribution from incompletely observed data. For settings with ignorable dropout, it emphasizes the importance of covariance models for inference about the mean while for nonignorable dropout, the book studies a variety of models in detail. It concludes with three case studies that highlight important features of the Bayesian approach for handling nonignorable missingness.
With suggestions for further reading at the end of most chapters as well as many applications to the health sciences, this resource offers a unified Bayesian approach to handle missing data in longitudinal studies.

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10/17/2011

Mathematical Finance: Theory, Modeling, Implementation Review

Mathematical Finance: Theory, Modeling, Implementation
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Disclaimer: As you can see from Amazon RealName (TM), I am the author of the book. The editorial review provided on the back of the book and reproduced on amazon was written by the publisher. However, that editorial review does not provide as much information about the book as I think is necessary. This review hopefully provides you with a more detailed description of the contents and objectives of the book, to help you finding the right book for your needs. [...]
The book's main objective is to provide an intuition for the theoretical concepts relevant for derivative pricing and to bridge from the more academic concepts (filtration, random variable, stochastic process) to their application in industry, most notably modeling, calibration and object oriented implementation. It comes with extensive additional material to further explore the key concepts. See the book's home page at christian-fries.de/finmath/book
The book starts like a textbook giving an introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes. However, instead of repeating "Definition-Theorem-Proof" the book often leaves out the proof and adds two special sections: "Motivation" and "Interpretation" (before and after a definition or theorem). The first part makes you acquainted with the mathematical theory and provides the intuition for the fundamental building blocks like random variable, brownian motion, drift and volatility, Ito process, measures, change of measure and numéraire, etc.
In the second part, first applications are, of course, the Black-Scholes model for a single asset. As an excursion important concepts like implied volatility, hedging and the greeks are presented. The results and graphs of these applications may be explored interactively in Java applets on associated web pages.
The third part introduces interest rates, interest rate products and further analytical pricing models. At first, this might come as an arbitrary choice of a specific asset class, namely to focus on interest rates in contrast then equity, foreign exchange (fx), or credit derivatives. However, there is a motivation on why interest rates are a natural choice if one wants to move to more complex derivatives like they have become popular recently: Derivatives feature payments or cash-flows (settlements) at different times, and interest rates are one way to describe the value of future payouts. Mathematically speaking, interest rate products (like bonds or money market accounts) are a natural choice for a numéraire. So interest rates are part of any model (e.g. the black-scholes model for equity and foreign exchange) and considering stochastic interest rates will make these models into hybrid interest rate models.
Before discussing interest rates models (part V) or hybrid models (part VI), the part IV of the book gives a treatment of the numerical implementation of such models. It focuses on Monte-Carlo simulations and their object oriented implementation. Monte-Carlo simulation is one of the most powerful tools in (numerical) derivative pricing. It is also a straight forward approach to implement models, making as few assumption as possible (for example: finite differences, like PDEs and trees are limited to low(er) dimensions). Despite its ubiquitous application, Monte-Carlo simulation brings several disadvantages: a) It is sometimes slower. Given the performance of todays computers, this disadvantage is becoming less important. b) Bermudan options are hard to price. This is solved in Chapter 15. Path-dependent bermudan options are even harder. This is solved in Chapter 16. c) Sensitivities are unstable. This is solved in Chapter 17 and 18.
Part V introduces bigger models, like the LIBOR Market Model, the classical Short Rate Models, Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework, Cheyette Model and Markov Functional Models. This part focuses a bit on the LIBOR Market Model as it is our workhorse. The calibration of the LIBOR Market Model is discussed (e.g. the calibration to swaption volatility and swap rate covariance) and hints for fast, object oriented implementations are given. Object oriented designs are given in UML diagrams. In "Excursions" concepts like mean-reversion, instantaneous and terminal correlation, multi-factor model, etc. are discussed and illustrated. This part will both endow you with a solid intuition of important model aspects as well as the ability to actually implement such model.
Part VI builds upon the models presented in part V to introduce model extensions like credit spread (credit default) or hybrid models. Examples for hybrid-models are equity-interest rate hybrid model, fx-interest rate hybrid model, multi-currency model. The equity-interest rate hybrid model is essentially a Black-Scholes model (as it was discussed in the second part of the book) with stochastic interest rate modeled by a LIBOR market model (as it was discussed in the fifth part of the book). Since the numéraire is an interest rate product, a Black-Scholes model with stochastic interest rates becomes an interest rate model with an extension.
Part VII gives a short introduction to object oriented implementation.

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A balanced introduction to the theoretical foundations and real-world applications of mathematical finance
The ever-growing use of derivative products makes it essential for financial industry practitioners to have a solid understanding of derivative pricing. To cope with the growing complexity, narrowing margins, and shortening life-cycle of the individual derivative product, an efficient, yet modular, implementation of the pricing algorithms is necessary. Mathematical Finance is the first book to harmonize the theory, modeling, and implementation of today's most prevalent pricing models under one convenient cover. Building a bridge from academia to practice, this self-contained text applies theoretical concepts to real-world examples and introduces state-of-the-art, object-oriented programming techniques that equip the reader with the conceptual and illustrative tools needed to understand and develop successful derivative pricing models.
Utilizing almost twenty years of academic and industry experience, the author discusses the mathematical concepts that are the foundation of commonly used derivative pricing models, and insightful Motivation and Interpretation sections for each concept are presented to further illustrate the relationship between theory and practice. In-depth coverage of the common characteristics found amongst successful pricing models are provided in addition to key techniques and tips for the construction of these models. The opportunity to interactively explore the book's principal ideas and methodologies is made possible via a related Web site that features interactive Java experiments and exercises.
While a high standard of mathematical precision is retained, Mathematical Finance emphasizes practical motivations, interpretations, and results and is an excellent textbook for students in mathematical finance, computational finance, and derivative pricing courses at the upper undergraduate or beginning graduate level. It also serves as a valuable reference for professionals in the banking, insurance, and asset management industries.

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10/02/2011

Modeling Risk, + DVD: Applying Monte Carlo Risk Simulation, Strategic Real Options, Stochastic Forecasting, and Portfolio Optimization (Wiley Finance) Review

Modeling Risk, + DVD: Applying Monte Carlo Risk Simulation, Strategic Real Options, Stochastic Forecasting, and Portfolio Optimization (Wiley Finance)
Average Reviews:

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Dr Mun's books are always very insightful with lots of practical examples and tools. A very good book for the professional that needs an in depth understanding of risk management. The book provides many analytical tools to properly assess and mitigate risks!


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An updated guide to risk analysis and modeling
Although risk was once seen as something that was both unpredictable and uncontrollable, the evolution of risk analysis tools and theories has changed the way we look at this important business element. In the Second Edition of Analyzing and Modeling Risk, expert Dr. Johnathan Mun provides up-to-date coverage of risk analysis as it is applied within the realms of business risk analysis and offers an intuitive feel of what risk looks like, as well as the different ways of quantifying it.
This Second Edition provides professionals in all industries a more comprehensive guide on such key concepts as risk and return, the fundamentals of model building, Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, time-series and regression analysis, optimization, real options, and more.
Includes new examples, questions, and exercises as well as updates using Excel 2007
Book supported by author's proprietary risk analysis software found on the companion CD-ROM
Offers both a qualitative and quantitative description of risk

Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this reliable resource covers all of the essential tools and techniques that risk managers need to successfully conduct risk analysis.
Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

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